NOAA Reveals Outlook for 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has revealed its outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, in a statement posted on its site.

The outlook predicts a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season, NOAA highlighted in the statement, adding that the organization is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms.

Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes, including one to four major hurricanes, according to NOAA, which said that it has a 70 percent confidence in these ranges. The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years due to competing factors driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season, NOAA noted.

“After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity,” NOAA said in the statement.  

“El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin. Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which creates more energy to fuel storm development,” NOAA added.

In NOAA’s latest statement, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said, “as we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives”.

“So, regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials,” Criswell added.

“Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,” Criswell continued.

Back in 2022, NOAA revealed that its outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season predicted a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. At the time, the organization was forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which it said six to 10 could become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes.

Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, 2021, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures show. In October 2020, the BSEE estimated at one point that approximately 84.8 percent of oil production and 57.6 percent of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico had been shut-in as a result of Storm Zeta. Several other storms affected U.S. oil and gas production in 2020, including Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Laura, and Tropical Storm Cristobal. 

NOAA noted in its statement that its outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to its latest outlook, NOAA said its Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, “just prior to the historical peak of the season”.

Summer Upgrades

In its latest statement, NOAA revealed that it will implement a series of upgrades and improvements this summer.

As part of these improvements, NOAA outlined that it will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20 percent, which it said will enable it to improve and run more complex forecast models.

Additional upgrades, or new tools, for hurricane analysis and forecasting include the expansion of the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphic from five to seven days, the extension of the Excessive Rainfall Outlook from three to five days, and a new generation of forecast flood inundation mapping for portions of Texas and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from The National Weather Service, NOAA highlighted.

The organization also noted that it will continue improving new and current observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. Two projects underway this season include new technologies - such as drone systems, underwater gliders, and global sounding balloons - to advance hurricane knowledge and the modernization and upgrade of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array, NOAA revealed.

NOAA said this upgrade will provide additional capabilities, updated instruments, more strategic placement of buoys and higher-frequency observations. Data from these buoys are used to forecast El Nino and La Nina, which can influence hurricane activity, the organization pointed out.

“Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA’s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo said in the statement.

NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said, “with a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial”.

“To that end, this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecast model and extending the tropical cyclone outlook graphic from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for storms,” he added.

Central Pacific

According to the outlook from NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 50 percent chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity during the central Pacific hurricane season this year, NOAA revealed on its site.

NOAA noted that the outlook indicates a 35 percent chance for near-normal activity and a 15 percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season. 

“Hurricane season in the central Pacific region is expected to be slightly busier this year, compared to a normal season,” Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said in an organization statement.

“A key factor influencing our forecast is the predicted arrival of El Nino this summer, which typically contributes to an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the Pacific Ocean basin,” he added.

Chris Brenchley, the Director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “the last few hurricane seasons have been pretty quiet around Hawaii, luring some folks to let their guard down”.

“Now it’s looking like this season will be more active than the past several years,” he added.

“It’s more important than ever to review your emergency plan and supply kit now, so you will be prepared for the next hurricane threat,” Brenchley continued.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com